The Changing Racial and Ethnic Limerick of the U.Due south. Electorate

The upcoming 2020 presidential election has drawn renewed attention to how demographic shifts across the United States have changed the composition of the electorate.

For this data essay, nosotros analyzed national and state-level shifts in the racial and ethnic makeup of the U.s. electorate betwixt 2000 and 2018, with a focus on key battleground states in the upcoming 2020 ballot. The analysis is primarily based on information from the U.S. Census Bureau'southward American Customs Survey and the 2000 U.South. decennial demography provided through Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) from the University of Minnesota.

See hither to read the data essay's methodology for farther details on our information sources.

Eligible voters refer to persons ages eighteen and older who are U.S. citizens. They make up thevoting-eligible population orelectorate. The termseligible voters,voting eligible,the electorate andvoters are used interchangeably in this report.

Registered voters are eligible voters who have completed all the documentations necessary to vote in an upcoming election.

Voter turnout refers to the number of people who say they voted in a given election.

Voter turnout rate refers to the share of eligible voters who say they voted in a given election.

Naturalized citizensare lawful permanent residents who have fulfilled the length of stay and other requirements to become U.S. citizens and who accept taken the oath of citizenship.

The termsLatino andHispanic are used interchangeably in this report. Hispanics are of any race.

References toAsians,Blacks andWhites are single-race and refer to the non-Hispanic components of those populations.

Battleground states include Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These states were identified past Pew Research Center using ratings from a variety of sources, run across the methodology for more than details.

In all 50 states, the share of non-Hispanic White eligible voters declined between 2000 and 2018, with x states experiencing double-digit drops in the share of White eligible voters. During that same flow, Hispanic voters have come to make upward increasingly larger shares of the electorate in every land. These gains are particularly large in the Southwestern U.S., where states like Nevada, California and Texas take seen rapid growth in the Hispanic share of the electorate over an 18-year period.one

These trends are also particularly notable in battleground states – such as Florida and Arizona – that are likely to be crucial in deciding the 2020 election.2 In Florida, two-in-10 eligible voters in 2018 were Hispanic, nearly double the share in 2000. And in the emerging battleground state of Arizona, Hispanic adults made up virtually i-quarter (24%) of all eligible voters in 2018, upwards 8 pct points since 2000.

To be certain, the demographic composition of an expanse does not tell the whole story. Patterns in voter registration and voter turnout vary widely by race and ethnicity, with White adults historically more than probable to be registered to vote and to plow out to vote than other racial and ethnic groups. Additionally, every presidential election brings its own unique set of circumstances, from the personal characteristics of the candidates, to the economy, to historic events such as a global pandemic. Still, agreement the changing racial and indigenous composition in primal states helps to provide clues for how political winds may shift over fourth dimension.

Black, Hispanic and Asian registered voters historically lean Autonomous

The ways in which these demographic shifts might shape balloter outcomes are closely linked to the distinct partisan preferences of unlike racial and ethnic groups. Pew Enquiry Heart survey data spanning more than ii decades shows that the Democratic Party maintains a wide and long-standing advantage among Blackness, Hispanic and Asian American registered voters.iii Among White voters, the partisan balance has been generally stable over the past decade, with the Republican Political party property a slight advantage.

All major racial and ethnic voter groups lean Democratic, except Whites

National exit polling data tells a similar story to partisan identification, with White voters showing a slight and fairly consequent preference toward Republican candidates in presidential elections over the last 40 years, while Black voters have solidly supported the Autonomous contenders. Hispanic voters take besides historically been more likely to support Democrats than Republican candidates, though their support has not been as consistent as that of Black voters.4

These racial and indigenous groups are by no means monolithic. There is a rich diversity of views and experiences within these groups, sometimes varying based on country of origin. For instance, Pew Inquiry Eye's 2018 National Survey of Latinos found that Hispanic eligible voters of Puerto Rican and/or Mexican descent – regardless of voter registration status – were more probable than those of Cuban descent to place as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party (65% of Puerto Rican Americans and 59% of Mexican Americans vs. 37% of Cuban Americans identified as Democrats). A majority of Cuban eligible voters identified as or leaned toward the Republican Political party (57%).

Amidst Asian American registered voters, in that location are also some differences in party identification past origin group. For instance, Vietnamese Americans are more probable than Asians overall to identify as Republican, while the opposite is true among Indian Americans, who tend to lean more Autonomous.

Higher voter turnout among White and Black voters in presidential elections

Given these differences within racial and ethnic groups, the relative share of unlike origin groups within a specific land tin can bear upon the partisan leanings of that state'southward electorate. For example, in Florida, Republican-leaning Cubans had historically been the largest Hispanic origin group. Nevertheless, over the past decade, the more Democratic-leaning Puerto Ricans take been the state's fastest-growing Hispanic-origin grouping, and they now rival Cubans in size. At the same time, in states similar California and Nevada, Mexican Americans, who tend to lean Democratic, are the dominant Hispanic origin group.

Partisan alignment does non tell the whole story when it comes to voting patterns. Voter turnout rates – or the share of U.South. citizens ages 18 and older who cast a ballot – besides vary widely across racial and ethnic groups. White adults historically take had the highest charge per unit of voter turnout: Near 2-thirds of eligible White adults (65%) voted in the 2016 election. Black adults accept also historically had relatively loftier rates of voter turnout, though typically slightly lower than White adults. At that place was an exception to this pattern in 2008 and 2012, when Blackness voter turnout matched or exceeded that of Whites. Past dissimilarity, Asian and Hispanic adults have had historically lower voter turnout rates, with virtually half reporting that they voted in 2016.

White and Black adults are also more probable than Hispanic and Asian adults to say that they are registered to vote.

Non-White eligible voters accounted for more than 3-quarters of full U.S. electorate growth since 2000

The non-White voting population has played a large role in driving growth in the nation's electorate. From 2000 to 2018, the nation's eligible voter population grew from 193.four million to 233.7 million – an increase of 40.3 million. Voters who are Hispanic, Black, Asian or some other race or ethnicity accounted for more than than three-quarters (76%) of this growth.

Most of the growth in the electorate since 2000 has come from Hispanic, Black and Asian eligible voters

The substantial percentage point increment of voters who are not White as a share of the country'due south overall electorate was largely driven by 2nd-generation Americans – the U.S.-born children of immigrants – coming of age, too every bit immigrants naturalizing and becoming eligible to vote. The increase has been steady over the past eighteen years – from 2000 to 2010, their share rose past 4 pct points (from 24% to 28%), while from 2010 to 2018, their share further grew by five points (upwards from 28% to 33%).

Hispanic eligible voters were notably the largest contributors to the electorate's ascension. They lonely accounted for 39% of the overall increase of the nation's eligible voting population. Hispanic voters made up 13% of the country's overall electorate in 2018 – nearly doubling from seven% in 2000. The population'due south share grew steadily since 2000, with similar percentage betoken growth observed between 2000 and 2010 (3 points) and 2010 and 2018 (iii points).

The Hispanic electorate's growth primarily stemmed from their U.S.-built-in population coming of historic period. The 12.iv one thousand thousand Hispanics who turned 18 between 2000 and 2018 accounted for 80% of the growth among the population'due south eligible voters during those years. The group'due south sustained growth over the past two decades will make Hispanics the projected largest minority group among U.S. eligible voters in 2020 for the first fourth dimension in a presidential election.

Asian eligible voters besides saw a pregnant rise in their numbers, increasing from 4.6 one thousand thousand in 2000 to 10.three million in 2018. And similar to Hispanics, their nearly two-decade growth has been relatively consistent. The population's share in the electorate grew at similar rates from 2000 to 2010 and from 2010 to 2018 (1 indicate each). In 2018, Asian eligible voters made up 4% of the nation's electorate (upwardly from two% in 2000), the smallest share out of all major racial and ethnic groups. Naturalized immigrants – a group that makes up two-thirds of the Asian American electorate – are the main commuter of the Asian electorate'southward growth. From 2000 to 2018, the number of naturalized Asian immigrant voters more than doubled – from 3.3 million to 6.9 million – and their growth alone accounted for 64% of the overall growth in the Asian electorate.

Despite notable growth in the non-White eligible voter population, not-Hispanic White voters withal fabricated upward the large majority (67%) of the U.Due south. electorate in 2018. All the same, they saw the smallest growth rate out of all racial ethnic groups from 2000 to 2018, causing their share to shrink past nearly ten percentage points.

Shares of non-Hispanic White eligible voters have declined in all 50 states

The overall decline in the shares of the non-Hispanic White eligible voter population tin can be observed across all states. (There hasn't been a reject in the District of Columbia.) While this trend is non new, information technology is playing out to varying degrees beyond the country, with some states experiencing peculiarly significant shifts in the racial and ethnic composition of their electorate.

In full between 2000 and 2018, ten states saw a 10 percentage point or greater decline in the share of White eligible voters. In Nevada, the White share of the electorate brutal xviii percentage points over near two decades, the largest drop among all fifty states. The decline in the White share of the electorate in Nevada has been fairly steady, with a comparable percentage point decline observed between 2000 and 2010 (x points) and 2010 and 2018 (8 points). California has experienced a similarly sharp decline in the White share of the electorate, dropping 15 percentage points since 2000. This has resulted in California irresolute from a majority White electorate in 2000 to a land where White voters were a minority share of the electorate in 2018 (60% in 2000 to 45% in 2018), though they nonetheless are the largest racial or indigenous group in the electorate.

Latinos vote at a polling station in Los Angeles. (David McNew/Getty Images)
Latinos vote at a polling station in Los Angeles. (David McNew/Getty Images)

Even with declines in all 50 states, White eligible voters still brand up the majority of most states' electorates. In 47 states, over half of eligible voters are White. The simply exceptions are California, New Mexico and Hawaii, where White voters account for 45%, 43% and 25% of each respective state's electorate.

Equally reflected on the national level, Hispanic eligible voters accept been the principal drivers of the racial and ethnic diversification of most states' electorates. In 39 states between 2000 and 2018, Hispanic eligible voters saw the largest percentage bespeak increase compared with any other racial or ethnic group. In three additional states – Alaska, Kentucky and Ohio – Hispanic voters were tied with another racial group for the highest increase. Five states that observed the largest growth in Hispanic shares in their electorates were California (11 percentage points), Nevada (10 points), Florida (9 points), Arizona (eight points) and Texas (8 points).

The number of Black eligible voters nationwide grew only slightly in the by eighteen years. Even and then, Blackness voters saw the largest percent point increment out of any other racial and ethnic grouping in 3 states in the Southeast: Georgia (v points), Delaware (4 points) and Mississippi (iv points).

As for Asian eligible voters, they saw robust growth in California (five pct points), Nevada and New Jersey (4 points each) between 2000 and 2018. Even so, their share increases paled in comparing to the Hispanic electorate's growth in those states. Overall, Asians saw their shares increment in the electorates of every state except Hawaii, where their share dropped past 4 percentage points. Still, Hawaii has the highest percentage of Asians in its electorate – 38% of all eligible voters in the state are Asian.

Racial and ethnic change amid eligible voters in battleground states

Equally the 2020 presidential election draws virtually, these demographic shifts are specially notable in some key battleground states, where changes in the composition of the electorate could have an bear on on electoral outcomes.5

Pace of racial and ethnic change varies widely across key battleground states

Nationally, Florida and Arizona saw the third- and fourth-largest declines in the shares of non-Hispanic White eligible voters. The White shares of the electorate in those states each stood at nigh six-in-ten in 2018, down from most three-quarters at the outset of the century. Four other battleground states – Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan – also saw declines in the share of White eligible voters between 2000 and 2018, though to a lesser extent.

In Florida, a state that has been pivotal to every U.South. presidential victory in the final 20 years, the White share of the electorate has fallen 13 percentage points since 2000. At the same time, the Hispanic share of the electorate has gone up 9 points, rising from eleven% of eligible Florida voters in 2000 to 20% in 2018. During this same menstruum, the Black share of the electorate in Florida has increased 2 pct points and the Asian share has increased past 1 point.

Arizona, largely seen as an emerging battleground state, has seen substantial alter to the racial and ethnic composition of its electorate. Hispanic adults at present brand up about one-quarter of all eligible voters (24%), an viii-signal increase since 2000.

Several battleground states have seen smaller – though still potentially meaningful – changes to the demographic composition of the electorate. In Pennsylvania, the White share of the electorate fell 7 percentage points while the Hispanic share of the electorate rose three points from 2000 to 2018. And in North Carolina, a state that voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and previously went for Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Nib Clinton, the White share of the electorate fell from 75% in 2000 to 69% in 2018. During the same time period, the Hispanic share of the electorate rose to four% (upwards three points since 2000) and the Black share of the electorate rose to 22% (up 1 point since 2000).

Demographic changes could keep to reshape the balloter landscape in future elections. While Texas is non currently considered a battleground country, demographic shifts have led some to wonder if the country could get more than competitive politically downwardly the road. In 2018, iii-in-ten eligible voters in Texas were Hispanic – that'southward upward viii percentage points since 2000. During that same fourth dimension, the share of White eligible voters in Texas fell 12 points, from 62% in 2000 to a bare majority (51%) in 2018.